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Aareal Bank AG

Earnings Release Nov 11, 2021

11_ip_2021-11-11_c2e1ddb0-1844-4111-8160-fe77e4352bf6.pdf

Earnings Release

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Analyst Conference Call

Q3 2021 results

November 11, 2021 Jochen Klösges (CEO) Marc Hess (CFO) - Christof Winkelmann (CMO)

Agenda

  • Highlights
  • Group Results
  • Segments
  • Capital, Funding & Liquidity
  • Outlook
  • Key Takeaways
  • Appendix

Agenda

  • Highlights
  • Group Results
  • Segments
  • Capital, Funding & Liquidity
  • Outlook
  • Key Takeaways
  • Appendix

Highlights

Good Q3 results demonstrate continued positive development

Aareal
Bank
Group
Still uncertain
environment

Gradually normalising environment supporting positive development

Covid-19 related uncertainties continue, esp. for the running winter quarter

Swoosh scenario expected to remain intact (economic recovery)
Encouraging
performance

Successfully executing our strategy -
significant top line driven
profit increase continued

Strong NII development based on profitable, risk conscious portfolio growth

LLP as expected still
above normalised average due to remaining Covid-19
related uncertainties

SPF:
-
Strong new
business with attractive margins further
supporting growth plan
-
Portfolio-YoD
significantly recovered
-
Portfolio volume already above original YE-target

BDS:
-
NCI further increased
-
Deposit volume at high level

Aareon:
-
Successful M&A activities
-
Sales revenue growth still diluted by Covid-19
Outlook
Operating profit target for 2021 confirmed,
FY-tax rate as communicated between 50% -
60% expected

The Bank invited to an EGM to be held on 9 Dec. 2021 for shareholders
to vote on the second tranche of the dividend for the 2020 financial year
amounting to 1.10 € per share.

However the discussions with Centerbridge
and Advent are still ongoing.
In the event of an offer being submitted the dividend proposal for the EGM
might be reassessed

Agenda

  • Highlights
  • Group Results
  • Segments
  • Capital, Funding & Liquidity
  • Outlook
  • Key Takeaways
  • Appendix

Group Results

Successfully executing our strategy - significant top line driven profit increase continued

€ mn Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 9M '20 9M '21 2021-Comments
Net interest income 128 139 138 142 155 373 435 Strong NII development based on profitable,
risk conscious portfolio growth
Loss allowance 61 177 7 33 39 167 79 LLP as expected still
above normalised
average due to remaining uncertainties
Net commission income 57 66 59 59 56 168 174 9M growth driven by Aareon's
recurring
revenue and M&A.
Sales revenue growth still diluted by Covid-19
Derecognition result 3 9 0 8 7 19 15 Positive effects from early loan repayments
in line with expectations
FV-
/ hedge-result
-2 -19 -4 -2 -5 -7 -11 Q3 incl. € -7 mn
value
adjustments (NPLs)
Admin expenses 114 117 150 118 125 352 393 Cost discipline maintained; 9M increase
mainly driven by Aareon
growth and lower
Covid-19 related underspend
Others 0 -1 -4 -15 1 -10 -18
Operating profit (EBT) 11 -99 32 41 50 24 123 Successfully executing our strategy -
significant top line driven profit increase
continued
Income taxes 10 -13 11 29 27 7 67 FY-tax rate as communicated between
50% -
60% expected
Minorities 1 3 1 1 0 2 2
AT1 4 4 4 3 3 12 10
Consolidated net income
allocated to ord. shareholders
-4 -93 16 8 20 3 44
Earnings per share (€) -0.05 -1.56 0.27 0.13 0.33 0.06 0.73

Net interest income (NII) / Net commission income (NCI)

Strongest NII in 4 years

Strong NII development based on profitable, risk conscious portfolio growth

  • Significant NII increase of >20% vs Q3/20, FY-guidance increased
  • 9M NII up by € 62 mn (+16%) reflecting successful execution of our strategy on both sides of the B/S
  • Q3 TLTRO contribution of € 7 mn vs. € 4 mn in Q3/20 (9M/21: € 19 mn vs. 9M/20: € 4 mn)
  • Strong new business generation with good margins well above plan leveraging market opportunities
  • Portfolio already increased above original YE-target

NCI 9M growth driven by recurring revenue and Aareon's M&A (9M/21: € 174 mn, 9M/20: € 168 mn). Sales revenue growth still diluted by Covid-19

  • Aareon:
    • 9M sales revenue increased (incl. M&A) despite ongoing Covid-19 impact on professional service
    • NCI affected by seasonally earlier revenue recognition in Q2
    • Q4 regularly boosted by seasonal effects
  • BDS continues positive underlying development towards defined target

Admin expenses / Loan loss provisions (LLP)

Cost discipline maintained; LLP as expected still slightly above normalised average due to remaining uncertainties

Bank:

  • Lower Covid-19 related underspend
  • Figures include transformation costs of € 1 mn in Q3/21 (Q3/20: € 0 mn) for "Aareal Next Level"

Aareon:

▪ Increase vs. Q3/20 driven by investments in organic growth (Value creation program) and M&A activities

LLP as expected still above normalised average due to remaining uncertainties

  • Q3-LLP significantly below last year's Covid-19 burdened level
  • Total Q3-LLP of € 46 mn incl. € 7 mn value adjustments in FVPL-line
  • Despite 9M development confirming guidance for FY 2021 incl. FVPL. Uncertainties ongoing especially for the running winter quarter

Non performing loans (NPL)

NPLs reduced by concluded Italian de-risking initiative

Agenda

  • Highlights
  • Group Results
  • Segments
  • Capital, Funding & Liquidity
  • Outlook
  • Key Takeaways
  • Appendix

Business environment recovering step by step

General observations

  • Economic recovery ongoing, however impacted by:
    • Existing delta variant and potential new variants, which may lead to additional challenges
    • Speed of vaccination is slowing down and boosters may be needed
    • Delivery chains are slow to recover to pre Covid-19 levels
    • Inflation driven rise in energy prices
  • Transaction volumes are further increasing across the globe, but are still below pre Covid-19 levels
  • Significant increase of national budget expenditures and corresponding deficits
  • Inflation rates are rising across the globe, increasing the likelihood of intervention by corresponding central banks
  • Fed is expected to start tapering activities this winter to counter rising inflation rates

Our portfolio

  • Lockdowns have been lifted and urban life is normalising around the world
  • People are catching up with their (social) life: dining, shopping, vacation
  • ➢ Pressure on CREF-portfolio is declining and KPIs are picking up

Business Environment

Impact on asset classes

Hotel
Hotels back open after lockdown measures have been lifted around the world

Performance improvement driven by national and international tourism

Business travel picking up and is expected to further increase during 2022

Conference bookings for the next few years show positive and promising trend

Filling open positions due to labour shortage remains major focus
Retail
Retail parks showed stable cash flows during the crisis, malls are recovering

Market value decline is bottoming out –
first transactions with stabilised values

Declining demand for space, primarily in B-
and C-locations, due to a greater focus on
online retail and quality rather than quantity

Structural change caused by online retailing = increased omnichannel development
Logistic
Supply chain problems will lead to an increased need for buffer capacities in the future

Increasing importance of online trading

Original speed of growth accelerated by Covid-19

Rising importance of last-mile-logistics due to demands for fast delivery
Office
General trend towards more office presence

Lower space demands due to more home office partially compensated by hygiene rules

Increasing demands for flexible space options to enable hybrid working models

Buildings must be "sustainable" or be adaptable via investments

Strong new business further supporting growth plan

More than 20% of the portfolio fulfills Aareal's demanding Green Finance Framework

portfolio within three years

1) All buildings within a financing have to qualify as green buildings according to Aareal GFF

2) Partnership for Carbon Accounting Financials

Portfolio already above original YE-target

  • By leveraging market opportunities focusing on healthy risk-return profile REF-portfolio already increased to € 29.6 bn by end of Q3
  • YE-portfolio target increased to € ~30 bn (from originally € ~29 bn)
  • Sticking to overall country and asset diversification with increasing importance of logistics financings, as well as portfolios for risk improvement due to cross collateralisation
  • Deal pipeline well filled with KPIs at or better than plan

2) Incl. Student housing (UK & Australia only)

Gradually normalising environment

  • Ø-portfolio LTV1) further improved vs. YE 2020 figures
  • Ø-portfolio YoD1) significantly up at 7.0%
  • Correspondingly, demand for liquidity support further declined in Q3

Update on hotel- and retail portfolio

  • The average LTV has further improved to 61% for the portfolio, as performance and visibility increase
  • YoD's have risen markedly to above YE-level of 2020, with further uplift expected by YE

  • Borrowers continue to adapt to the circumstances, working on and implementing new business strategies
  • YoD has improved and represents a healthier overall level
  • Updated valuations support further overall stabilisation of LTV level

Segment: Banking & Digital Solutions

NCI further increased, deposits at high level

Deposits by type > Sight deposits: 63% Rental guaranty deposits: 19% Maintanance reserve: 18% € 11.9 bn Avg. Q3/21

NCI further increased

  • BDS continues positive underlying development towards defined target
  • 9M-NCI further increase to € 20 mn in 9M/21 vs. € 18 mn in 9M/20
  • Q2 burdened by BGH-ruling of € ~1 mn

Deposits at high level

  • YE-guidance raised to € 12 bn (from € 11 bn)
  • Deposits from rental guarantees and maintenance reserves increased by € ~0.5 bn mn to € 4.4 bn vs. Q3/20
  • Stable funding source during crisis continuously proven over last decade

Segment: Aareon - on the way to become a "Rule of 40" company Strong investments in M&A and VCP to achieve our 2025 targets

M&A activities: strong execution in 2021

  • Building on a strong pan-European M&A roll-up platform to realise growth opportunities in our target customers
  • 6 acquisitions closed in 2021 financed by hunting line

Operational business: significantly strengthened

New products based on new technologies, e.g.

  • Continuation of campaign for new ERP product generation Wodis Yuneo with focus on SaaS (VCP)
  • New digital solutions developed to expand Aareon Smart World – marketing and product launches started, e.g. for AI-based products

DACH: Further increased market share, expanded product offering and increased cross-selling potentials

  • GAP-Group (10/21): ERP solution for housing industry, crossselling potential for digital solutions of Aareon Smart World
  • wohnungshelden (08/21): SaaS solution for lettings process, cross-selling opportunities and expansion of product portfolio

UK: Increased market reach by tapping and consolidating fastgrowing adjacent SMB property management market

  • Tilt (07/21): SaaS property management solution
  • Fixflo (05/21): SaaS digital solution for repairs workflow
  • Arthur Online (01/21): SaaS property management solution

NL: Strong platform further expanded – new client group, increased cross-selling potential

▪ Twinq (05/21): SaaS solution privately owned housing management

Value Creation Program: substantial progress

Focus on transforming process to become a full SaaS company

  • SaaS/subscription campaign leading to higher recurring revenues (diluting revenue growth in 2021)
  • Go-to-Market: campaign for higher client value product packages started in Gerrmany in Q2, now extended to France and NL for selected customers

Segment: Aareon

Growth driven by increased recurring revenues and acquisitions, remaining on sustainable growth path despite temporarily lower PS

Note: Numbers not adding up refer to rounding 1) PS (Professional Services) = Consulting business

Agenda

  • Highlights
  • Group Results
  • Segments
  • Capital, Funding & Liquidity
  • Outlook
  • Key Takeaways
  • Appendix

Capital Solid capital position

21

  • Q3 increase in B3 and B4 (phase-in)1) CET1 ratios mainly resulting from lower RWAs
  • RWA increase from strong and profitable portfolio growth more than compensated by positive effects from retroactively collateral recognition and from NPL reduction in Q3
  • Following the publication of the Commission's proposal for the European implementation of B4 the standards have become more specific. To further align internal steering we currently consider to adjust the calculation of the B3 ratios accordingly from 2022 onwards
  • Early redemption of € 300 mn Tier 2 Notes in Q1 reflected in total capital ratios, further optimisation potential
  • Solid T1-Leverage ratio at 5.7% despite TLTRO participation and portfolio growth
  • Remaining regulatory uncertainties (models, ICAAP, ILAAP, B4, etc.)

1) Underlying RWA estimate, incorporating the higher figure determined using the revised AIRBA or the revised CRSA (phased-in), based on the draft version dated 27 October 2021 of the European implementation of Basel IV by the European Commission. The conservative calculation of the material impact upon Aareal Bank is subject to the final EU implementation as well as the implementation of additional regulatory requirements, such as the EBA requirements.

Funding & Liquidity

Diversified funding sources and distribution channels

  • Sustainable and strong housing industry deposits increased by almost € 1 bn and verified as an important part of well diversified funding mix
  • Larger CREF loan book to result in a higher number of public benchmark transactions
  • Successful new issuance transactions of € 3.5 bn in 2021 incl.:
    • Two € 500 mn Pfandbrief Benchmarks
    • \$ 750 mn Pfandbrief Benchmark
    • Inaugural SONIA linked £ 500 mn Pfandbrief
    • € 250 mn increase of outstanding Senior preferred Bond (Nov/2027) to new notional amount of € 750 mn
    • € 500 mn Senior Preferred Benchmark
  • Participation in ECB's TLTRO (€ +1 bn) increased to a total of € 5.3 bn in Q1/21
  • Liquidity ratios significantly over fulfilled:
    • NSFR > 100%
    • LCR >> 100%

Agenda

  • Highlights
  • Group Results
  • Segments
  • Capital, Funding & Liquidity
  • Outlook
  • Key Takeaways
  • Appendix

Outlook 2021 Operating profit target confirmed

METRIC 2020 OUTLOOK 20211)
p
u
o
Gr

Net interest income

Net commission income

LLP

Admin expenses
€ 512 mn
€ 234 mn
€ 344 mn
€ 469 mn
€ 550 -
580 mn
€ 570 -
590 mn
€ 250 -
270 mn
€ 240 -
250 mn
€ 125 -
200 mn
€ 520 -
540 mn

Operating profit

Earnings per share (EPS)
€ -75 mn
€ -1.50
€ 100 -
175 mn
€ ~0.40 -
~1.202)
Aareal
Next Level
METRIC 2020 OUTLOOK 20211)
s
nt
e
"Activate" Structured
Property Financing

REF Portfolio

New business
€ 27.8 bn
€ 7.2 bn
€ ~30 bn3)
€ ~29 bn3)
€ 7 bn -
€ 8 bn
m
g
e
S
"Elevate" Banking & Digital
Solutions

Deposit volume

NCI
€ 11.0 bn
€ 26 mn
€ ~12 bn
€ ~11 bn
€ ~28 mn
"Accelerate" Aareon
Revenues

Adj. EBITDA
€ 258 mn
€ 62 mn
€ 270 -
274 mn
€ 276 -
280 mn
€ 63 mn
-
€ 65 mn

1) Based on "Swoosh" scenario. In the current environment, this forecast is subject to significant uncertainty, especially with regard to the assumed duration and intensity of the crisis, the pace of recovery and the associated effects on our clients, as well as prevailing unclear regulatory and accounting provisions, and the possibility that individual loan defaults cannot be reliably predicted.

2) EPS calculation based on expected FY-tax ratio between 50% and 60%

3) Subject to FX development

24

Agenda

  • Highlights
  • Group Results
  • Segments
  • Capital, Funding & Liquidity
  • Outlook
  • Key Takeaways
  • Appendix

Key takeaways

Positive development continued in the third quarter

  • Operating profit increased to € 50 mn in Q3
  • Strong net interest income development based on profitable and risk conscious portfolio growth reflecting successful execution of our strategy "Aareal Next Level"
  • Loan loss provisions significantly below last year, but Covid-19 related slightly above normalised level

Growth initiatives paying off

  • SPF: By end of Q3 REF-portfolio already increased above original YE-target Strong new business focusing on healthy risk-return profile with attractive margins and good LtVs
  • BDS: Net commission income further increased, deposits at high level
  • Aareon: Successful M&A activities supporting further growth

Outlook: Operating profit target 2021 confirmed

  • Swoosh-scenario intact, depending on the duration of the pandemic and the pace of recovery
  • FY-operating profit target confirmed
  • FY-loan loss provision remains in guided range due to remaining uncertainties caused by the pandemic
  • Course set for further controlled growth in the future

Group results Q3 / 9M 2021

Aareal Bank Group Results Q3 2021

01.07.-
30.09.2021
01.07.-
30.09.2020
Change
€ mn € mn
Profit and loss account
Net interest income 155 128 21%
Loss allowance 3
9
6
1
-36%
Net commission income 5
6
5
7
-2%
Net derecognition gain or loss 7 3 133%
Net gain or loss from financial instruments (fvpl) -3 -4 -25%
Net gain or loss on hedge accounting -2 2 -200%
Net gain or loss from investments accounted for using the equity method 0 0 0
%
Administrative expenses 125 114 10%
Net other operating income / expenses 1 0
Operating Profit 5
0
1
1
355%
Income taxes 2
7
1
0
170%
Consolidated net income 2
3
1 2200%
Consolidated net income attributable to non-controlling interests 0 1 -100%
Consolidated net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank AG 2
3
0
Earnings per share (EpS)
Consolidated net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank AG1) 2
3
0
of which: allocated to ordinary shareholders 2
0
-4 -600%
of which: allocated to AT1 investors 3 4 -25%
Earnings per ordinary share (in €)2) 0.33 -0.05 -760%
Earnings per ordinary AT1 unit (in €)3) 0.03 0.04 -25%

1) The allocation of earnings is based on the assumption that net interest payable on the AT1 bond is recognised on an accrual basis.

2) Earnings per ordinary share are determined by dividing the earnings allocated to ordinary shareholders of Aareal Bank AG by the weighted average of ordinary shares outstanding during the financial year (59,857,221 shares). Basic earnings per ordinary share correspond to diluted earnings per ordinary share.

3) Earnings per AT1 unit (based on 100,000,000 AT1 units with a notional amount of 3 € each) are determined by dividing the earnings allocated to AT1 investors by the weighted average of AT1 units outstanding during the financial year. Earnings per AT1 unit (basic) correspond to (diluted) earnings per AT1 unit.

Results Q3 2021 by segments

Structured
Property
Financing
Banking &
Digital
Solutions
A
a
r
e
Aareon Consolidation/
Reconciliation
Aareal Bank
Group
01.07.-
30.09.
2021
01.07.-
30.09.
2020
01.07.-
30.09.
2021
01.07.-
30.09.
2020
01.07.-
30.09.
2021
01.07.-
30.09.
2020
01.07.-
30.09.
2021
01.07.-
30.09.
2020
01.07.-
30.09.
2021
01.07.-
30.09.
2020
€ mn
Net interest income 146 119 1
1
9 -2 0 0 0 155 128
Loss allowance 3
9
6
1
0 0 3
9
6
1
Net commission income 2 1 7 6 5
0
5
3
-3 -3 5
6
5
7
Net derecognition gain or loss 7 3 7 3
Net gain or loss from financial instruments (fvpl) -3 -4 0 -3 -4
Net gain or loss on hedge accounting -2 2 -2 2
Net gain or loss from investments
accounted for using the equity method
0 0 0 0
Administrative expenses 5
9
5
6
1
7
1
5
5
2
4
6
-3 -3 125 114
Net other operating income / expenses -1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0
Operating profit 5
1
4 1 0 -2 7 0 0 5
0
1
1
Income taxes 2
8
9 0 -1 -1 2 2
7
1
0
Consolidated net income 2
3
-5 1 1 -1 5 0 0 2
3
1
Allocation of results
Cons. net income attributable to non-controlling
interests
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Cons. net income attributable to shareholders of
Aareal Bank AG
2
3
-5 1 1 -1 4 0 0 2
3
0

Results 9M 2021

01.01.-
30.09.2021
01.01.-
30.09.2020
Change
€ mn € mn
Profit and loss account
Net interest income 435 373 17%
Loss allowance 7
9
167 -53%
Net commission income 174 168 4
%
Net derecognition gain or loss 1
5
1
9
-21%
Net gain or loss from financial instruments (fvpl) -7 -11 -36%
Net gain or loss on hedge accounting -4 4 -200%
Net gain or loss from investments accounted for using the equity method -1 0
Administrative expenses 393 352 12%
Net other operating income / expenses -17 -10 70%
Operating Profit 123 2
4
413%
Income taxes 6
7
7 857%
Consolidated net income 5
6
1
7
229%
Consolidated net income attributable to non-controlling interests 2 2 0
%
Consolidated net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank AG 5
4
1
5
260%
Earnings per share (EpS)
Consolidated net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank AG1) 5
4
1
5
260%
of which: allocated to ordinary shareholders 4
4
3
of which: allocated to AT1 investors 1
0
1
2
-17%
Earnings per ordinary share (in €)2) 0.73 0.06
Earnings per ordinary AT1 unit (in €)3) 0.10 0.12 -17%

1) The allocation of earnings is based on the assumption that net interest payable on the AT1 bond is recognised on an accrual basis.

2) Earnings per ordinary share are determined by dividing the earnings allocated to ordinary shareholders of Aareal Bank AG by the weighted average of ordinary shares outstanding during the financial year (59,857,221 shares). Basic earnings per ordinary share correspond to diluted earnings per ordinary share.

3) Earnings per AT1 unit (based on 100,000,000 AT1 units with a notional amount of 3 € each) are determined by dividing the earnings allocated to AT1 investors by the weighted average of AT1 units outstanding during the financial year. Earnings per AT1 unit (basic) correspond to (diluted) earnings per AT1 unit.

Results 9M 2021 by segments

Structured
Property
Financing
Solutions Banking &
Digital
A
a
Aareon
r
e
Consolidation/
Reconciliation
Aareal Bank
Group
01.01.-
30.09.
2021
01.01.-
30.09.
2020
01.01.-
30.09.
2021
01.01.-
30.09.
2020
01.01.-
30.09.
2021
01.01.-
30.09.
2020
01.01.-
30.09.
2021
01.01.-
30.09.
2020
01.01.-
30.09.
2021
01.01.-
30.09.
2020
€ mn
Net interest income 406 345 3
3
2
9
-4 -1 0 0 435 373
Loss allowance 7
9
167 0 0 7
9
167
Net commission income 6 4 2
0
1
8
157 155 -9 -9 1
5
168
Net derecognition gain or loss 1
5
1
9
1
5
1
9
Net gain or loss from financial instruments (fvpl) -7 -11 0 0 -7 -11
Net gain or loss on hedge accounting -4 4 -4 4
Net gain or loss from investments -1 0 0 -1 0
accounted for using the equity method
Administrative expenses 193 173 5
3
5
0
156 138 -9 -9 393 352
Net other operating income / expenses -21 -11 0 0 4 1 0 0 -17 -10
Operating profit 123 1
0
-1 -3 1 1
7
0 0 123 2
4
Income taxes 6
8
4 -1 -2 0 5 6
7
7
Consolidated net income 5
5
6 0 -1 1 1
2
0 0 5
6
1
7
Allocation of results
Cons. net income attributable to non-controlling
interests
0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2
Cons. net income attributable to shareholders of
Aareal Bank AG
5
5
6 0 -1 -1 1
0
0 0 5
4
1
5

Results – quarter by quarter

Financing Structured Property Banking & Digital
Solutions
Aareon Consolidation /
Reconciliation
Aareal Bank Group
Q3 Q2
2021
Q1 Q4
2020
Q3 Q3 Q2
2021
Q1 Q4
2020
Q3 Q3 Q2
2021
Q1 Q4
2020
Q3 Q3 Q2
2021
Q1 Q4
2020
Q3 Q3 Q2
2021
Q1 Q4
2020
Q3
€ mn
Net interest income 146 133 127 129 119 11 11 11 10 9 -
2
-
2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 155 142 138 139 128
Loss allow
ance
39 33 7 177 61 0 0 0 0 0 39 33 7 177 61
Net commission income 2 2 2 4 1 7 6 7 8 6 50 54 53 58 53 -
3
-
3
-
3
-
4
-
3
56 59 59 66 57
Net derecognition
gain or loss
7 8 0 9 3 7 8 0 9 3
Net gain / loss from fin.
instruments (fvpl)
-
3
-
3
-
1
-21 -
4
0 0 -
3
-
3
-
1
-21 -
4
Net gain or loss on
hedge accounting
-
2
1 -
3
2 2 -
2
1 -
3
2 2
Net gain / loss from
investments acc. for
using the equity method
2 -
1
0 0 0 -
1
0 0 -
1
0 1 0
Administrative
expenses
59 50 84 54 56 17 17 19 18 15 52 54 50 50 46 -
3
-
3
-
3
-
5
-
3
125 118 150 117 114
Net other operating
income / expenses
-
1
-15 -
5
-
3
0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 -
1
0 1 -14 -
4
-
1
0
Operating profit 51 43 29 -109 4 1 -
1
-
1
0 0 -
2
-
1
4 10 7 0 0 0 0 0 50 41 32 -99 11
Income taxes 28 30 10 -18 9 0 -
1
0 1 -
1
-
1
0 1 4 2 27 29 11 -13 10
Consolidated net
income
23 13 19 -91 -
5
1 -
1
-
1
-
1
1 -
1
-
1
3 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 23 12 21 -86 1
Cons. net income
attributable to non
controlling interests
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 1 0 1 1 3 1
Cons. net income
attributable to ARL
shareholders
23 13 19 -91 -
5
1 0 -
1
-
1
1 -
1
-
2
2 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 23 11 20 -89 0

Asset quality

CREF portfolio by country

€ 29.0 bn highly diversified

CREF portfolio by property types

€ 29.0 bn highly diversified

Western Europe (ex Germany) CREF portfolio

Total volume outstanding as at 30.09.2021: € 10.4 bn

1) Incl. Student housing (UK & Australia only)

German CREF portfolio

Total volume outstanding as at 30.09.2021: € 3.1 bn

Southern Europe CREF portfolio

Total volume outstanding as at 30.09.2021: € 2.6 bn

Accelerated Italian De-Risking initiative successfully concluded

  • De-Risking initiative started in 2019 which in itself led to a significant reduction of the Italian legacy exposure by € 1.6 bn
    • NPLs reduction of € 730 mn2) or ~65%
    • Performing loans with LtV > 90% reduced by € 350 mn
    • BTPs3) reduced by € 530 mn
  • Significant net capital release resulting from de-risking initiative exceeding P&L burden
    • Net capital release eco. ICAAP: € ~150 mn
    • Net capital release reg. Capital (B34) ): € ~140 mn
    • Net capital release reg. Capital (B45)): € ~110 mn

1) Figures as of 30/06/21 less two NPLs derecognised in 08/21

  • 2) Foreclosed Italian assets taken on own book for future development of € 137 mn not included
  • 3) BTP = Buono del Tesoro Poliennali

39 4) Based on B3 CET1-ratio of 18.8%

5) Based on B4 CET1-ratio (phase-in) of 17.3%

Eastern Europe CREF portfolio

Total volume outstanding as at 30.09.2021: € 1.9 bn

Northern Europe CREF portfolio

Total volume outstanding as at 30.09.2021: € 1.4 bn

North America CREF portfolio

Total volume outstanding as at 30.09.2021: € 8.6 bn

Asia / Pacific CREF portfolio

Total volume outstanding as at 30.09.2021: € 1.0 bn

B/S & Treasury Portfolio

B/S structure according to IFRS

Well balanced

1) Other assets includes € 0.3 bn private client portfolio and WIB's € 0.3 bn public sector loans

Treasury portfolio € 7.3 bn of high quality and highly liquid assets

As at 30.06.2021 – all figures are nominal amounts 1) Composite Rating

Segment: Aareon

Segment: Aareon P&L and other KPIs

P&L Aareon
segment -
Industry format1)
€ mn
Q3'20 9M'20 Q3'21 9M'21 ∆ Q3
'21/'20
∆ 9M
'21/'20
Sales revenue

Thereof ERP

Thereof Digital
63
49
14
188
144
44
62
46
16
195
145
49
-2%
-6%
13%
3%
1%
12%
Costs2)

Thereof material
-50
-10
-150
-34
-54
-12
-169
-38
8%
16%
11%
12%
EBITDA 13 36 8 25 -40% -31%
Adjustments2) -2 -4 -5 -16 >100% >100%
Adj. EBITDA 15 41 13 42 -12% 2%
EBITDA 13 36 8 25 -40% -31%
D&A / Financial result -6 -20 -9 -24 42% 24%
EBT / Operating profit 6 17 -2 1 <-100% -94%
R&D, RPU and operating cashflow
Revenue per unit (RPU) –
LTM (€)
22
R&D spend as % of software revenue –
YTD
23%
YTD Operating Cash Flow (€ mn) 13
  • RPU (last 12 months) at 22 € (H1/21: 24€)
  • R&D spend picking up in line with communicated pattern of gradual increase in the short term up to 25%
  • VCP- as well as M&A-related investments led to higher costs growth in relation to revenue growth as planned
  • Operating Cash Flow at € 13 mn (9M/20: € 34 mn) mainly driven by lower operating result due to higher investments

1) Calculation refers to unrounded numbers

2) Incl. New product, VCP, Ventures, M&A and one-offs

Aareal Next Level – 360o-review

Aareal enters into first stage evolution of 'Aareal Next Level'

Operating profit target of € ~300 mn to be achieved already in 20231)

January
2020

We introduced our strategy 'Aareal
Next Level' with three strategic pillars ACTIVATE!, ELEVATE!
and ACCELERATE!
Q4 2020
Management initiated a 360°
review of 'Aareal
Next Level' in the context of Covid-19 and its
mid term structural implications supported by McKinsey

Key focus of 360°
review: i) create sustainable shareholder value in a new normal after Covid-19
mid-term1)
and ii) resume our track record as reliable dividend payer2)
with the aim of earning our CoE

360°
review confirms 'Aareal
Next Level' remaining a successful and attractive strategy even in a
post Covid-19 environment. Thus, we will enter into first stage evolution of 'Aareal
Next Level'
Early 2021 1
2
3
4
5

We identified
additional levers within the 'Aareal
Next Level' strategic framework
to significantly improve our successful performance in the future
already in 20233) which translates

We envisage to achieve an operating profit target of € ~300 mn
into a return on equity after taxes of ~8%1)
on Group as well as on Bank level

Free capital retained for either M&A and/or capital management

1) 15% CET 1 reference ratio (Basel IV, phase-in, revised IRBA) exceeding the market average as a reference; excluding any potential acquisitions; subject to the Covid 19 crisis being fully overcome by then

2) Subject to ECB approval

50 Note: All 2020 figures preliminary and unaudited 3) Excluding any potential acquisitions, and subject to the Covid-19 crisis being fully overcome by then

'Aareal Next Level' strategy confirmed as successful and attractive Operating profit target of € ~300 mn to be achieved already in 20231)

Strategy and business model confirmed, being successful in a normalised environment post Covid-19

First evolution of 'Aareal Next Level' enables utilising market opportunities in Covid-19 environment and increase efficiency in organisation, of processes and infrastructure

Operating profit target of € ~300 mn to be achieved already in 20231) translating into a RoE after taxes of ~8%2) on Group and Bank level

Transformation, innovation and investment budgets

  • Aareal Bank: i) transformation budget of € 10 mn fully financed by related positive one-offs and ii) innovation budget for growth initiatives of on avg. € ~2 mn p.a. (2021 - 2023) to boost NCI in Banking & Digital Solutions3)
  • Additional investment budget4) for Aareon with growth costs in context of VCP implementation (2021: € ~8 mn) leading to a temporary dilution of EBT

  • 3) Formerly known as Consulting / Services Bank: has been renamed effective from Jan. 2021

  • 51 Note: All 2020 figures preliminary and unaudited 4) Excluding costs for Aareon M&A and M&A financing

1) Excluding any potential acquisitions, and subject to the Covid-19 crisis being fully overcome by then

2) 15% CET 1 reference ratio (Basel IV, phase-in, revised IRBA) exceeding the market average as a reference; excluding any potential acquisitions; subject to the Covid 19 crisis being fully overcome by then

ACTIVATE! Structured Property Financing

Take advantage of market opportunities, grow book and optimize funding

We continue to leverage on expanded origination, structuring and exit opportunities – "Play the Matrix" i .e. countries, property types and structures

Lever First stage
evolution
of
'Aareal
Next Level'
Targets
1 Continue to pursue risk-conscious and ESG conform, organic expansion of financing
business based on attractive margins to increase our on-balance credit portfolio
REF portfolio:
YE 21: € ~29 bn

As done in Q4, utilizing market opportunities in the Covid-19 environment with attractive
risk / return profiles building on our USPs
YE 22: € ~30 bn

Increase our NII, leverage our platform and enhance profitability through RoE
accretive
business, syndication capability is continuously used to improve structure of new
business and profitability / return

We will continue to further develop our asset light strategy
2 Optimisation of funding mix and capital structure to enhance profitability and return

Review and fine-tune our liquidity and ALM strategy, but maintain prudent liquidity ratios

Enhance our funding mix regarding new products e.g. establishing a CP programme
and optimize funding costs, by speeding up our cover pool process

Optimize our regulatory capital structure
Q1 21:
Termination of
T2 € 300 mn
YE 22:
Executed ALM /
liquidity strategy

ACTIVATE! We continue to strive towards greater ESG-transparency

Preliminary data on climate performance for about 85% of our existing CREF portfolio has been collected – pursuit of further data ongoing

53

ELEVATE! Banking & Digital Solutions1)

Leverage on our deeply embedded customer integration and increase NCI

We continue to leverage and grow our housing and adjacent industries business through elevation and expansion of our product suite with focus on NCI based income and take opportunities in cooperation with customers and other partners

Lever
3
First stage
evolution
of
'Aareal
Next Level'
Targets
Increase our opportunities for a further expansion with a particular focus on
our net commission income in our Digital Solutions business
Ø 23: Deposit
volume of

Sharpening our strategic profile and enhance our development capabilities
€ >11 bn

Continue to leverage and grow our housing and adjacent industries business through
cross selling with an increasing contribution of our innovation portfolio
Grow NCI with
a CAGR of 13%

grow NCI with a CAGR of 13% until 2023
until 2023

On top: Innovation budget for growth initiatives of on average € ~2 mn
p.a. between
2021 and 2023 together with pursuing selected M&A opportunities with the ambition
to double NCI until 2025
Ambition to
double NCI
until 2025

We reconfirm the attractiveness of our deposit base in our Banking business which is deeply imbedded in our clients' processes

▪ Sticky deposit base at attractive terms and costs from group perspective, further upside in a rising rate environment and the opportunity of additional cross selling

1) Formerly known as Consulting / Services Bank: has been renamed effective from Jan. 2021

property industry with a strong value proposition

ACCELERATE! Aareon

VCP, developed with Advent, Aareon and Aareal, to increase mid-term adj. EBITDA target from € >110 mn to € 135 mn and M&A on top ▪ Accelerate investment in developing new digital products and offerings to add to Aareon's growing portfolio of Digital Solutions ▪ Go to market excellence and accelerate "new logo" wins ▪ Leveraging Aareon's core ERP installed base to upsell / cross sell new modules and digital solutions from Aareon's Smart World ▪ Additional investment budget1) for Aareon with growth costs in context of VCP implementation (2021: € ~8 mn) leading to a temporary dilution of EBT YE 23: VCP with add. positive EBT impact (organic) YE 25: Increase adj. EBITDA from € >110 mn to € ~135 mn; achieve Rule of 402) Implementing Aareon's strategic M&A roadmap ▪ Execution of strategic M&A roadmap and EBITDA contribution from M&A activities on top ▪ Initially up to € 250 mn debt funding of M&A roadmap negotiated EBITDA from M&A on top Lever First stage evolution of 'Aareal Next Level' Targets 4 M&A

VCP to increase mid-term adj. EBITDA target to € 135 mn, M&A on top

We continue to strengthen Aareon's position as the leading and independent software company for the

▪ Recent acquisition of SaaS company Arthur being the first evidence of the successful partnership with Advent

1) Excluding costs for Aareon M&A and M&A financing

2) Rule of 40: Sum of Aareon's annual revenue growth and adj. EBITDA margin will at least reach 40%

55

Aareon unmatched growth opportunity

Substantial upside unlocked through a combination of RPU growth and unit expansion

  • Highly integrated digital ecosystem Aareon Smart World
  • End-to-end product suite and roadmaps, from ERP to Digital Solutions
  • Strong pan-European M&A roll-up platform

Increase RPU – Following the US Market experience

Aareon elevated to a "Rule of 40 company"

Operational business (as presented at Investor Day)

  • ERP 2025: Ambitious continuation of implementation of new ERP product generations
  • Offer Digital Solutions, continued investment in developing innovative and competitive digital products
  • Employee Engagement Program: Empower people for success

Well structured M&A process

  • Highly attractive M&A platform, with opportunity to further scale internationally
  • New M&A and PMI teams implemented
  • Sharpened & expanded M&A pipeline is systematically pursued – considering mature business & high growth ventures
  • Financing structure for M&A has been negotiated (€250m)

Value Creation Program

  • Go-To-Market: Improve GTM excellence with focus on targeting new logos and driving up-/cross-sell. Opportunity to extend value based packages to customers while driving digitalisation of industry
  • SaaS Acceleration: Drive SaaS to realise higher share of recurring revenues
  • Software Implementation Efficiency: Accelerate growth from recurring software through highly efficient software implementations
  • Operations Excellence: Leverage potential organisational value creation levers that could support growth
  • 36One: Provide a data lake for reporting excellence. Improve back office performance and automation

Aareon further increased strong financial outlook

Despite Covid-19 pandemic KPIs remained rather solid in 2020

2020A Former Mid
Term
2025E
Revenue growth 2% 7-9% 10%*
% Recurring revenues of total
revenue
67% - 70%
Revenue per unit (RPU) in € 24 35-40 40
Adj. EBITDA in €m (without
M&A)
62 110 135
Rule of 40 27% - ≥40%
% R&D spend**
(of software revenue)
22% 20% 20%
**short-term up
to
25%
*CAGR 20/25

Organisation: Implementation of group wide efficiency measures

Maintaining strict cost discipline and implement further efficiency measures

Lever First stage
evolution
of
'Aareal
Next Level'
Targets
5 YE 23:
SPF CIR
of <40%1)
Transformation
budget financed
by related one
off effects
/ Income Ratio LTM2)
Cost
ARL SPF1)
Aareon1)
ARL ex.
Continued cost discipline,
Target 23
Aareon1)
ARL
SPF1)
ex.
20
20
23
costs underlines our
compared to peers best in
49%
class Cost/Income Ratio
44%
<40%
additional efficiency measures
and growth at low marginal
1) Excluding bank levy; 2020 ARL ex Aareon
incl. bank levy 54% / 2020 ARL SPF incl. bank levy 48%

2) Euro StoxxBanks plus Deutsche Pfandbriefbank as of 15.02.2021, total non-interest expense LTM divided by revenue before loan losses LTM (excluding unusual Items like goodwill impairments, restructuring costs etc.); Source: S&P Capital IQ

Note: All 2020 figures preliminary and unaudited

59

'Aareal Next Level': Our KPIs and targets

Operating profit target of € ~300 mn to be achieved already in 20231)

On track to achieve
'Aareal
Next Level'
objectives
(February 2020)
Our KPIs and targets
2020 2023 2025
Aareal Bank Group
Revenues2)
€ 746 mn Mid-single digit growth
CAGR

Operating profit
€ -75 mn € ~300 mn1)
Incl. positive
impact of VCP

RoE post tax Group
-3.5% ~8%3)

Dividend policy
Announced Unchanged, 50% base dividend plus 20-30% supplementary dividend4)
Aareal Bank

CIR SPF5)
44% <40%
Aareon

Revenue
€ 258 mn 10% CAGR

Adj. EBITDA
€ 62 mn € ~135 mn
Achieve rule of 40
EBITDA from M&A on top
  • 1) Excluding any potential acquisitions, and subject to the Covid-19 crisis being fully overcome by then
  • 2) Net interest income and net commission income

3) 15% CET 1 reference ratio (Basel IV, phase-in, revised IRBA) exceeding the market average as a reference; excluding any potential acquisitions; subject to the Covid-19 crisis being fully overcome by then

  • 60
    • 4) Subject to ECB approval according to conditions mentioned on page 68 5) Excluding bank levy

2023 Target RoE post tax above peers… …despite higher CET1 Ratio

2023 RoE post tax – Broker estimates1)

2023 CET1 Ratio – Broker estimates2)

Note: All 2020 figures preliminary and unaudited

Next Steps in our ESG Journey

Strengthening ESG as an integral part of our DNA by refining our strategy and setting ambitious goals and targets

1) e.g. Building certificates (i.e. DGNB, BREEAM, HQE, LEED, NABERS) or energy-performance certificates based on an ongoing dialogue with our clients as well as research in external databases

Regulation

SREP (CET 1) requirements

Demonstrating conservative and sustainable business model

Dividend Policy

Dividend Policy and BVPS-development

Distribute approx. 50% of the earnings per ordinary share (EpS) as base dividend

Potential Supplementary Dividend1)

A supplementary dividend up to 20 - 30% of the EpS to be considered, if

  • No material deterioration of the environment (with longer-term and sustainably negative effects) and
  • No material changes in regulation incl. sufficient capital buffers in a forward looking perspective and
  • No attractive investment opportunities and
  • No positive growth environment beyond current planning

For FY 2021, payable in 2022: Further development of Covid-19 and above-mentioned factors to be considered regarding supplementary dividend

Attractive dividend policy and significant book value growth created sustainable value for Aareal and hence our shareholders

AT1: ADI of Aareal Bank AG

Interest payments and ADI of Aareal Bank AG

Available Distributable Items (as of end of the relevant year)

€ mn 31.12.
2016
31.12.
2017
31.12.
2018
31.12.
2019
31.12.
2020
Net Retained Profit

Net income

Profit carried forward from previous year

Net income attribution to revenue reserves
122
122
-
-
147
147
-
-
126
126
-
-
120
120
-
-
90
90
-
-
+
Other revenue reserves after net income attribution
720 720 720 720 840
Total dividend potential before amount blocked1)
=
842 870 846 840 930
./.
Dividend amount blocked under section 268 (8)
of the German Commercial Code
./.
Dividend amount blocked under section 253 (6)
of the German Commercial Code
235
28
283
35
268
42
314
40
320
43
= Available Distributable Items1) 579 552 536 486 566
+
Increase by aggregated amount of interest expenses relating to
Distributions on Tier 1 Instruments1)
46 32 24 23 21
=
Amount referred to in the relevant paragraphs of the terms and
conditions of the respective Notes as being available to cover Interest
Payments on the Notes and Distributions on other Tier 1 Instruments1)
625 584 560 509 587

1) Unaudited figures for information purposes only

Definitions and contacts

Definitions

=
New Business
New business = Newly acquired business + renewals
Common Equity
=
Tier 1 ratio
CET 1
Risk weighted assets
=
Pre tax RoE
Operating profit/income ./. loss attributable to non-controlling interests ./. AT1 coupon
Average IFRS equity excl. non-controlling interests, AT1 and dividends
=
CIR
Admin expenses (excl. bank levy, et al.)
Net income
=
Net income
net interest income + net commission income + net result on hedge accounting + net trading income + results from non-trading
assets + results from investments accounted for at equity + results from investment properties + net other operating income
Net stable funding
=
ratio
Available stable funding
Required stable funding
Liquidity coverage
=
ratio
Total stock of high quality liquid assets
Net cash outflows under stress
=
Earnings per share
operating profit ./. income taxes ./. income/loss attributable to non controlling interests ./. net AT1 coupon
Number of ordinary shares
=
Yield on Debt
NOI x 100 (Net operating income, 12-months forward looking)
Outstanding incl. prior/pari-passu loans
(without developments)
=
CREF-portfolio
Commercial real estate finance portfolio excl. private client business and WIB's public sector loans
=
REF-portfolio
Real estate finance portfolio incl. private client business and WIB's public sector loans
=
NPL-ratio
NPL-exposure acc. CRR (excl. exposure in cure period)
Total REF Portfolio

Contacts

Jürgen Junginger

Managing Director Investor Relations Phone: +49 611 348 2636 [email protected]

Sebastian Götzken

Director Investor Relations Phone: +49 611 348 3337 [email protected]

Carsten Schäfer

Director Investor Relations Phone: +49 611 348 3616 [email protected]

Karin Desczka

Manager Investor Relations Phone: +49 611 348 3009 [email protected]

Julia Taeschner

Group Sustainability Officer Director Investor Relations Phone: +49 611 348 3424 [email protected]

Daniela Thyssen

Manager Sustainability Management Phone: +49 611 348 3554 [email protected]

Leonie Eichhorn

Sustainability Management Phone: +49 611 348 3433 [email protected]

Robin Weyrich

Sustainability Management Phone: +49 611 348 2335 [email protected]

Disclaimer

© 2021 Aareal Bank AG. All rights reserved.

This document has been prepared by Aareal Bank AG, exclusively for the purposes of a corporate presentation by Aareal Bank AG. The presentation is intended for professional and institutional customers only.

It must not be modified or disclosed to third parties without the explicit permission of Aareal Bank AG. Any persons who may come into possession of this information and these documents must inform themselves of the relevant legal provisions applicable to the receipt and disclosure of such information, and must comply with such provisions. This presentation may not be distributed in or into any jurisdiction where such distribution would be restricted by law.

This presentation is provided for general information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to enter into a contract on the provision of advisory services or an offer to purchase securities. Aareal Bank AG has merely compiled the information on which this document is based from sources considered to be reliable – without, however, having verified it. The securities of Aareal Bank AG are not registered in the United States of America and may not be offered or sold except under an exemption from, or pursuant to, registration under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended. Therefore, Aareal Bank AG does not give any warranty, and makes no representation as to the completeness or correctness of any information or opinion contained herein. Aareal Bank AG accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense, loss or damages arising out of, or in any way connected with, the use of all or any part of this presentation. The securities of Aareal Bank AG are not registered in the United States of America and may not be offered or sold except under an exemption from, or pursuant to, registration under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

This presentation may contain forward-looking statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements or trend information that are based on current plans, views and/or assumptions and subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties, most of them being difficult to predict and generally beyond Aareal Bank AG's control. This could lead to material differences between the actual future results, performance and/or events and those expressed or implied by such statements.

Aareal Bank AG assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement or any other information contained herein.

Thank you.

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